Integration of Remote Sensing, Cellular Automata, and Carbon Modeling for Predicting Land Use Change and Carbon Stock Loss in Central Lampung Regency"

Ery Amalia Ananda; Alimudin Muchtar; Dedy Miswar; Hari Kasyoko; Arif Darmawan

doi:10.23960/jpg.v14.i1.61

Authors

Ery Amalia Ananda Universitas Lampung Author
Alimudin Muchtar Universitas Lampung Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3900-2460
Dedy Miswar Universitas Lampung Author https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6331-0503
Hari Kasyoko Universitas Lampung Author
Arif Darmawan Universitas Lampung Author https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3900-2460

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.23960/jpg.v14.i1.61

Keywords:

land use change, prediction, control strategies, MOLUSCE model

Abstract

It was a quantitative research in which the data was compared using the logistic regression and the data were collected and documented through observation and documentation and MOLUSCE (Model For Land Use Change Simulation) model in QGIS Las Palmas 2.18.15. Landsat 7 imagery (2013), Landsat 8 imagery (2018, 2023), administrative, settlements, road network, soil type, and slope shapefiles are some of the data used. Based on the findings of the analysis, population growth and pressure on the land use resulted in the Central Lampung Regency experiencing significant landuse changes throughout the period of 2013- 2023. By 2023, the land area on dry agricultural land was reduced to 15162531 hectares, which was against 21662131 hectares in 2013. In fact, the developed land had expanded to a vast magnitude of 73,019.89 to 114,615.89 hectares within the same period signifying high needs of infrastructure and houses. It is projected that built-up land (29.06 percent) and bare land (28.72 percent) will be the biggest land covers in 2043 and this indicates high urbanization process and value of land renting strategy high. Such developments cause severe effects on the availability of land resources and the environment, and this is the reason why the effective and sustainable development can be ensured with the help of proper government policies.

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